By Nancy Emily Nagujja
On 28th February, 2022, The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) released the consumer price indices and inflation rates during a press briefing held at its headquarters in Kampala.
During the briefing, Mr. Edgar. M. Niyimba the Principal Statistician Process Statistics broke down the Annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Uganda for the last 12 months to February, 2022 which has increased to 3.2%, up from 2.7% registered in January 2022. This was mainly driven by the increases in the prices of commodities under: The Education Services (9%), Furnishings, Household equipment and Routine Household (9.6%), Restaurants and accommodation services (3.2%), clothing and footwear (2.5%), transport (0.6%), personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods at 4.6%.
The overall consumer prices vary according to the different months from February 2021- February 2022 as follows: February 2021:111.85 , March 2021: 112.17, April 2021:112.50, May 2021:112.67, June 2021: 113.10, August 2021: 113.06, September 2021:113.74, October 2021: 113.93, November 2021:114.13, December 2021:114.65, January 2022:114.30 and February 2022 at 115.42. With inflation rates of 2.3, 2.7, 2.1, 1.9, 2.0, 2.1, 1.9, 2.2, 1.9, 2.6, 2.9, 2.7 and 3.2 respectively.
During the month of February 2022 the inflation rates increased by 1.0% compared to the 0.3% drop recorded in the month of January 2022. This is mainly attributed to the monthly Education services Inflation which increased in the month of February 2022 compared to the 0.0% recorded in the month of January 2022. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household increased by 3.7% in February, 2022 compared to the 0.6% rise recorded in January 2022. Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rose by 0.4% in the month of February 2022 the same rate recorded in the month of January 2022. In addition, the monthly inflation for restaurants and accommodation services rose by 1.2% in February 2022 compared to the 1.0% rise recorded in January 2022.
However Information and communication monthly inflation decreased by 0.7% in February, 2022 compared to the 0.1% rise recorded in January 2022. Transport monthly inflation registered 0.0% in the month of February 2022 compared to the 5.3% drop recorded in January 2022.
Relative to February 2021 and January 2022, the national average retail prices of selected commodities in February 2022: Laundry bar soap(1kg) ; 5,826ugx, sugar at 3,537ugx, rice 3,661ugx, tomatoes for 1,756 Ugx, green pepper; 2,972ugx, charcoal; 945 Ugx, Petrol; 5,028 Ugx per litre, and refined oil 2,975 Ugx per milliliter.
The Core inflation for the 12 months to February 2022 increased to 3.1% in February 2022 up from 2.3% registered in January 2022. This is mainly attributed to annual goods inflation that increased to 5.1% for the 12 months to February 2022 up from 4.3% in January 2022. In addition, annual services inflation increased to 0.8% for the 12 months to February 2022 up from 0.0% in January 2022.
The non-core inflation for the 12 months to February 2022 decreased to 3.5%, down from 5.0% in January. The decrease in Annual non-core inflation is attributed to food crops and related terms inflation which decreased to 0.7% in February 2022 down from 3.7% in January 2022. This was as a result of annual vegetables, tubers, and plantains, cooking bananas and pulses inflation that registered 0.0% in February 2022, down from 5.1% registered in January 2022.
However annual energy fuel and utilities inflation (EFU) increased to 7.0% up from 6.5% in January 2022. The increase in EFU was due to Annual Liquid Energy Fuels Inflation that increased to 25.2% in February 2022, up from 22.6% in January 2022. Specifically, annual Petrol Inflation increased in February 2022 up from 30.5% registered in January 2022.
The goods annual inflation for the 12 months to February 2022 increased to 4.7% up from 4.4% recorded in January 2022. This was mainly due to annual inflation for non-durable goods that increased to 5.2 percent for the 12 months to February 2022 up from 5.1% recorded in January 2022. In addition, annual semi-durable goods inflation increased to 3.7% in February 2022 compared to 3.1% in January 2022. The annual inflation for durable goods increased to 1.9% for the 12 months to February 2022 up from 1.0% in January 2022.
From the analysis by geographical areas and income groups, Gulu registered the highest inflation of 4.4% for the 12 months to February 2022 down from 4.5% recorded in January 2022. This was majorly driven by annual furnishings, household equipment and routine household inflation that increased to 15.4% in February 2022, up from 7.3% registered in January 2022. In addition annual housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation increased to 7.1% in February 2022 up from 5.0% in January 2022.
Kampala high income registered the second highest inflation at 4.2% for the 12 months to February 2022 from 3.1% recorded in January 2922. This was mainly driven by annual education services inflation that increased to 12.1% in February 2022 up from the 0.6% registered in January 2022. Annual transport inflation increased to 5.1% in February 2022 from 4.3% in January 2022.
The least annual inflation was registered in Jinja at 1.6% for the 12 months to February 2022 which was the same rate recorded in January 2022. The low inflation was due to food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation that declined to 4.9% for the 12 months to February 2022 down from 5.6% in January 2022. The annual recreation sport and culture inflation declined to -4.3% in February 2022 down from -1.4% in January 2022.
Ms. Juliet Nakayenga, a senior statistician elaborated on the reason why things like sugar at 3537 Ugx, soap at 5826 Ugx are purchased by them as consumers and evaluate. These products are to ensure they are in the right amounts. She also noted that in the communication and information division, the inflation rate has had a decrease of the -1.4% compared to that of last month of January 2022.
The Health division has had an annual change of 2.2% lower than last month and last year February 2022. Annual services inflation increased to 0.8% for the 12 months to February 2022.
Mr. Edgar .M. Niyimba explained the increase in commodities like soap is from producer level where they are having issues with increased tax of 10%. Soap prices have gradually increased due to the increase in prices of palm oil where 20% is in grown within Uganda and 80% imported hence the increase in prices as a result of the added taxes too.
However the Inflation rates that increased for fuel are expected to go lower as the economy fully reopens and the trucks bringing in the fuel ably pass the boarders and get fully distributed throughout the country to avoid the rapid rise of fuel prices. The next launch for the inflation rates of Uganda’s consumer price indices and inflation rates will be on 31st March 2022.
